Simulasi Monte Carlo Untuk Memprediksi Persediaan Dan Permintaan Darah Padah Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI) Provinsi NTT

RAYON, Nofianus Manek (2023) Simulasi Monte Carlo Untuk Memprediksi Persediaan Dan Permintaan Darah Padah Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI) Provinsi NTT. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Katolik Widya Mandira Kupang.

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Abstract

UTD PMI NTT Province is a blood transfusion unit located in Kupang City, precisely in Kelapa Lima District. So far, UTD PMI NTT Province has served blood requests in 12 hospitals and 1 clinic in (City/Regency) Kupang. From the data obtained, it can be seen that the blood supply data in 2018 to 2022 exceeds the demand data, this causes unused blood to expire and will be thrown away. In this regard, it is necessary to make predictions to determine the supply and demand for blood at the UTD PMI NTT Province in the future. The method used to predict blood supply and demand is the monte carlo method. The results of the prediction of blood supply for 2023 from January to December obtained data for group (A) of 15,148 blood bags, blood group (B) of 18,489 blood bags, blood group (O) of 26,157 blood bags, blood group (AB) of 3,915 blood bags. Meanwhile, requests for blood (A) totaled 6,234 blood bags, (B) 7,235 blood bags, (O) 11,289 blood bags, (AB) 1,408 blood bags. Based on the level of accuracy obtained from the comparison between predicted data and real data in previous years, it can be concluded that the monte carlo method has been successfully applied to predict blood supply and demand at UTD PMI NTT Province.

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