Simulasi Monte Carlo Prediksi Jumlah Korban Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas Kota Kupang Berbasis Web

BESSI SURA, Julio Jeremy. (2024) Simulasi Monte Carlo Prediksi Jumlah Korban Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas Kota Kupang Berbasis Web. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Katolik Widya Mandira Kupang.

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Abstract

Kupang City is the capital of East Nusa Tenggara Province (NTT) and has a high rate of traffic accidents. Data from the Kupang City Traffic Police (Satlantas Polres Kupang Kota) shows significant accident figures over the past five years (2019-2023). This study developed a web-based application system using the Monte Carlo method to predict the number of traffic accident victims in Kupang City. The Monte Carlo method, as a probabilistic simulation technique, is effective in handling uncertainty in accident predictions. This system uses historical data, with PHP programming language and MySQL as the database. The software development model applied is the waterfall model. The simulation results demonstrate the system's effectiveness in providing accurate predictions, especially for minor injuries. In 2023, the predicted average number of minor injury victims was 38 per month, with actual data showing 37 per month, achieving 91% accuracy. During the dry season, the predicted number of minor injury victims reached 46 per month, with actual data showing 45, yielding 93% accuracy. In the rainy season, the predicted number of minor injury victims was 30 per month, while actual data showed 28, with 89% accuracy. This system assists the Kupang City Traffic Police in making decisions related to traffic safety.

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