Prediksi Permintaan Dan Persediaan Darah : Pendekatan Dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing

BATARIUS, Patrisius and SINLAE, Alfry Aristo Jansen (2024) Prediksi Permintaan Dan Persediaan Darah : Pendekatan Dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing. J-Icon : Jurnal Informatika dan Komputer, 12 (1). pp. 1-9. ISSN 2654-4091

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Abstract

The Blood Transfusion Unit of the Indonesian Red Cross (UTD-PMI) in Kupang plays a crucial role in maintaining the balance between demand and supply of blood bags in 12 hospitals and 1 clinic in the region. The main challenge faced is the imbalance between high blood demand and limited supply at UTDPMI, which is the focus of the research. To address this issue, the study utilizes the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method to predict blood demand and supply. The data from the last four years serve as the basis for predictions, categorized into two main groups. The first category, focused on the fourth year (2022), utilizes data from the past three years (2019-2021) and the last two years (2020-2021), compared to the actual data for that year. The second category, for the fifth year (2023), incorporates four types of data ranges: the last year (2022), the last two years (2021-2022), the last three years (2020-2022), and the last four years (2019-2022). Prediction accuracy is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) parameter. Predictions are made to understand the potential data for the next six months. Although prediction results vary based on the data range used, overall predictions fall within the Good Forecast category. This indicates the success of the DES method in managing the imbalance between blood demand and supply at UTD-PMI in Kupang. With this approach, it is expected to enhance the efficiency of blood management and distribution, contributing positively to healthcare services in the region. Keywords: DES, MAPE, UTD-PMI Kupang, blood demand, blood supply

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