Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit (CPO) Indonesia

TUKA, Jesiliana Lede (2025) Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit (CPO) Indonesia. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Katolik Widya Mandira Kupang.

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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the partial influence of the exchange rate, international CPO prices, and the GDP per capita of destination countries on Indonesia’s CPO export volume from 2014 to 2023, and to analyze the simultaneous influence of the exchange rate, international CPO prices, GDP per capita, and the Covid-19 pandemic on the export volume. This research uses quantitative methods with panel data in the form of secondary data obtained through documentation techniques. The data were processed using SPSS version 25 to conduct statistical analysis, classical assumption tests, hypothesis testing, and determination coefficient tests (R²). Partially, the exchange rate and the GDP per capita of countries such as the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, and Singapore significantly affect Indonesia’s CPO export volume. On the other hand, international CPO prices and the Covid-19 pandemic do not have a significant partial effect. This indicates that global prices and the pandemic were not the main influencing factors of CPO exports during the period studied. Simultaneously, the independent variables — exchange rate (X1), international CPO price (X2), GDP per capita of destination countries (X3), and the Covid-19 pandemic (X4) — have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia’s CPO export volume, with a significance value of 0.000 < 0.05 and an F-statistic of 9.557 > F-table of 2.641. The coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.723, meaning that 72.3% of the variation in CPO export volume can be explained by the four independent variables, while the remaining 27.7% is influenced by other factors outside the model. Future researchers are advised to include other independent variables that may influence Indonesia’s CPO export volume, such as export tariffs, logistics costs, or trade policy. Additionally, more advanced methods such as panel regression or ARDL could be used to produce deeper analysis. Policymakers and business actors are also expected to pay attention to exchange rate stability and the economic conditions of destination countries, as they are proven to be important in influencing CPO export performance.

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