Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Memprediksi Harga Minyak Kelapa Sawit

USKONO, Arlando Giovanni (2025) Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Memprediksi Harga Minyak Kelapa Sawit. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Katolik Widya Mandira Kupang.

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Abstract

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) is one of the major commodities in global trade, with prices that are highly volatile and influenced by various factors. This price fluctuation poses challenges for market participants, such as companies and policymakers, in planning business strategies and making decisions. This study aims to apply the Monte Carlo simulation as a tool for predicting crude palm oil prices. The Monte Carlo method is a technique that uses probability and sample data to solve problems. The data used in this study includes crude palm oil prices from the past five years. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction results. Based on the results of the study, it was found that the predicted crude palm oil price for the following year could reach a high of RM 4,852.20 in October, while the lowest price is expected to be RM 4,064.80 in September, with an average MAPE value of 7.74%.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: volatility, Monte Carlo, price prediction, palm oil
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software
Divisions: Fakultas Teknik > Program Studi Ilmu Komputer
Depositing User: Arlando Giovanni Uskono
Date Deposited: 17 Nov 2025 23:18
Last Modified: 17 Nov 2025 23:18
URI: http://repository.unwira.ac.id/id/eprint/23045

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