Prediksi Hasil Pertanian Menggunakan Metode Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing Berbasis Web (Studi Kasus: Balai Penyuluh Pertanian Kecamatan Satarmese)

WULANDARI, Roswita Cahyami (2022) Prediksi Hasil Pertanian Menggunakan Metode Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing Berbasis Web (Studi Kasus: Balai Penyuluh Pertanian Kecamatan Satarmese). Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Katolik Widya Mandira Kupang.

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Abstract

Information technology is one of the most important resources for everyone. With the information a person can easily take an action or take a decision. In the Satarmese Subdistrict, agricultural extension has been carried out for a long time, both by the government and the agricultural community in the area. Agricultural Extension Center (BPP) has the task of providing information on technology, production facilities, financing and markets for farmers to sell their agricultural products. One of the technological innovations carried out to help increase the productivity of agricultural crops is the construction of a system that is used to predict the next harvest. The results of the test using the Brown’s double exponential smoothing method which is implemented in the application and with the results of calculations in Excel to predict agricultural yields (ricefield, paddy field, and Corn) in 2022, obtained the same results, namely lowland rice as much as 37,492,563 tons, 577.25 tons of field rice, and 1,4889.59 tons of corn. The best alpha obtained for the estimation of lowland rice production in Satarmese District from the 2012-2021 data is 0.5, with the MAPE generated in this calculation is 6.9%. For upland rice the best alpha used is 0.5, with a MAPE of 1.70%. And the best alpha used for corn is 0.1, with a MAPE of 18.85%. Because the MAPE value generated in this study is below 20%, this calculation is considered good.

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