Implementasi Metode Weighted Moving Average Untuk Memprediksi Permintaan Darah Di UTD PMI Provinsi NTT

USFOMENI, Godilifa Nesi (2023) Implementasi Metode Weighted Moving Average Untuk Memprediksi Permintaan Darah Di UTD PMI Provinsi NTT. Undergraduate thesis, Univesitas Katolik Widya Mandira Kupang.

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Abstract

The Indonesian Red Cross (PMI) is an organization engaged in social humanity. The problem with UTD PMI NTT Province is that the demand for blood exceeds the blood supply because blood stock depends on the number of donors who donate blood. The difficulty in determining the amount of blood supply each month requires that UTD PMI NTT Province requires a tool to predict demand for blood types A, B, AB and O, so that it can adjust blood supply and PMI can make various efforts such as holding blood donation events to meet demand. the blood. The right prediction method is used to predict demand, namely the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) method. The aim of this research is to help PMI predict blood demand so that it can match blood supply. This study uses data for the last 5 years, from January 2018 to December 2022 to predict blood demand. The results of the demand prediction for blood groups A, B, AB and O in January 2023 are 914, 1337, 244, and 1533 with MAPE values for blood groups A, B, AB, and O namely 28, 091, 14, 856, 25,901, and 20 ,72. MAPE value <30%, this prediction is good. The results of testing and analysis of the demand for blood types A, B, AB, and O, were tested using data from the last 1 year to the last 4 years to predict the demand for blood in January 2022. The results obtained are suitable data used to predict the demand for blood type A , B, and O should use 36 months of actual data because they have an Eror value of MAPE <20% indicating that the data is good for predictions.

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