Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Memprediksi Jumlah Wisatawan di Pemandian Air Panas Mengeruda

NGAI, Inocentius Stefanus (2025) Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Memprediksi Jumlah Wisatawan di Pemandian Air Panas Mengeruda. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Katolik Widya Mandira Kupang.

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Abstract

Mengeruda Hot Springs in Ngada Regency, East Nusa Tenggara, is one of the popular tourist attractions that attracts local and foreign tourists. However, the fluctuating increase in the number of visitors poses challenges in managing adequate facilities and resources. Accurate estimates of the number of tourists are needed to improve service quality, optimize resource utilization, and develop effective promotional strategies. This study aims to develop a tourist number prediction model using the Monte Carlo method, which allows analysis of data variations based on historical conditions. This method uses tourist visit data for the last four years. Testing the accuracy of the prediction results using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) measure. Based on the results of the study, it was obtained that the prediction of the number of tourists in 2025 with the highest number of visitors in January reaching 10,663 visitors while the lowest number was in March with 6,123 visitors with an average MAPE value calculation of 32.44%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Monte Carlo Simulation, Prediction, Meruda Hot Springs, Tourism
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software
Divisions:	Fakultas Teknik > Program Studi Ilmu Komputer
Depositing User:	Inocentius Stefanus Ngai
Date Deposited:	16 Dec 2025 02:09
Last Modified:	16 Dec 2025 02:09
URI:	http://repository.unwira.ac.id/id/eprint/23209

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