Analisis Resiko Penurunan Hasil Penjualan PT. Satria Karya Adiyudha Cabang Kupang Dengan Metode Simulasi Monte Carlo

WARE, Benericet (2016) Analisis Resiko Penurunan Hasil Penjualan PT. Satria Karya Adiyudha Cabang Kupang Dengan Metode Simulasi Monte Carlo. Undergraduate thesis, Unika Widya Mandira.

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Abstract

Risk analysis is a form of a state of uncertainty about a situation that will occur in the future with a decision taken based on various considerations that are happening. This also applies to the PT Satria Karya Adiyudha (SKAY) Branch Kupang in estimating the risk of a decrease in sales results due to the difficulty of determining stock inventory for sales that occurred in PT SKAY uncertain. In this research, software development method used is Watefall. While the methods used in estimating the risk of decreasing sales results are Simulation Monte Carlo method, in to model and analyze systems that contain risks and uncertainties, as well as the Netbeans Java programming language and MySQL as the database addressable. This study resulted in a decline in applications Risk Analysis Results Sales at PT Satria Karya Adiyudha Kupang Branch With Monte Carlo simulation method that is able to minimize losses and maximize profits. Is by using a confidence level of 95% predicted a decrease in the estimated maximum possible proceeds borne PT SKAY during the next 20 days in the year 2013 was 44.08% and in 2014 was 37.0%.

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